20 Years Later, Will Chinese Teens Still Get Married?

It’s 2046, and you’re 23 years old. Among your classmates, some are already living with an AI companion system. Some have moved into “solo-optimized apartments.” Some got married in the metaverse. And some just say: “I’m not interested in marriage, thanks.” None of that is strange — it’s just how people live in that era. So let’s think it through: what will love, marriage, and family look like for young Chinese people 20 years from now?

Question 1: Will young Chinese people in 2046 still get married?

Yes — but fewer and fewer of them will. In 2024, China recorded fewer than 7 million new marriages in a single year. Back in 2013, that number was 13 million. This isn’t random — it’s an entire generation answering the question: “What’s the point of getting married?” By 2046, the marriage rate could be half of today’s, or even lower. But that doesn’t mean people will stop wanting closeness. They’ll just do it differently. Many will choose to live together without registering — having a partner without a marriage certificate. Many others will live alone for large stretches of their lives, putting their energy into work, hobbies, and friendships instead of rushing to find someone. The government will be very worried about this, because falling marriage rates are directly connected to falling birth rates. Expect Beijing and Shanghai to roll out all kinds of “marriage incentive policies” by 2046 — lower mortgage rates for married couples, longer paid leave, maybe even direct cash payments. But a lot of young people will just laugh and say: that’s not enough to buy my freedom.

Question 2: Will AI companions become a real substitute for human relationships?

This is an uncomfortable question, but it has to be faced. By 2046, AI companion technology will be far more advanced than anything you see today. The AI chat apps you use now are just the beginning. Future AI companions will have realistic voices, learn your habits continuously, remember things you said three years ago, and even share a meal with you through holographic projection. Japan and South Korea already have early AI companion products, and China has similar apps. By 2046, these products could have hundreds of millions of users. But here’s the catch: AI companions can give you the feeling of company and safety, but they can’t replace the most complex parts of a real human relationship — uncertainty, conflict, and growth. A partner who never gets angry at you, who always agrees with you — is that really what you want? Many psychologists will worry: if people get used to AI, will they find it harder and harder to tolerate the imperfections of real relationships? That’s a question the young people of 2046 will have to answer for themselves.

Question 3: Will parents pressuring kids to marry still be a Chinese “tradition”?

The parents of 2046 will mostly be people born between 1980 and 1995 — today’s “70s generation” and “80s generation.” This group grew up through the one-child policy, intense gaokao (college entrance exam) pressure, and dramatic social change. Their expectations for their children will be more complicated than those of the “60s generation.” Some parents will still push for marriage, but with much less force. The reason is simple: when your child is 34, still renting in Beijing, earning 20,000 yuan a month, and under enormous pressure — do you really have the heart to say “why aren’t you married yet?” More parents will change their question to: are you happy? Do you have friends? Do you need help with rent? Not because they’ve become more open-minded, but because reality has taught them that “getting married” doesn’t solve everything. Of course, smaller cities and rural areas will change much more slowly — traditional family pressure and the idea of “matching families” won’t disappear in 20 years. So the kind of pressure you’ll face will depend a lot on where you live.

Question 4: If they do marry, how will Chinese couples divide responsibilities in 2046?

One of the biggest tensions in Chinese families today is that women are becoming more and more highly educated, yet housework and childcare still falls mainly on them. By 2046, this tension won’t disappear completely — but it will shift significantly. First, household robots will become common. Sweeping, washing dishes, folding laundry, even cooking simple meals — robots will handle all of it. That alone will cut out a lot of arguments about who does the chores. Second, more and more young men will have grown up in different environments — their mothers may have been independent professionals, so they’ve seen a different kind of family from the start. Third, as birth policies change and birth rates keep falling, the government will be more willing to support paternity leave for men. But the deepest cultural attitudes always change slowest. By 2046, “men work outside, women manage the home” will probably be laughed at by most young urban people — yet in practice, many households will still have women doing more unpaid labor than men.

Question 5: Will divorce be easier in 2046?

China introduced a “divorce cooling-off period” in 2021 — once you apply for divorce, you have to wait 30 days before it can be finalized. This policy caused huge controversy; many people felt it restricted personal freedom. How divorce law will evolve by 2046 is hard to predict, but a few directions seem likely. First, “agreed divorce” (uncontested divorce) will become far more standardized — like signing a contract, with both parties dividing assets and arranging child custody through lawyers or AI arbitration systems, making the process faster and more transparent. Second, prenuptial agreements will become very common — no longer just for wealthy people, but a basic document most couples sign before marriage. Third, custody decisions will take children’s own wishes more carefully into account, not just which parent earns more. Overall, divorce will still be painful, but the paperwork will be much simpler than today. The trickiest cases will be couples who got married in the metaverse and accumulated lots of “digital assets” — how does a court split a virtual apartment?

Question 6: Will Chinese families still have children in 2046?

This is one of the Chinese government’s biggest headaches. In 2023, China’s total population began to fall, and its birth rate hit a historic low. By 2046, that trend will not have reversed. China’s annual births could fall below 5 million — compared to more than 20 million per year in the 1990s. But that doesn’t mean no one will have children. Having a child will increasingly become an active choice, not a default. Families who choose to have children will tend to be those with real resources — time, money, a stable home, a reliable support network — to welcome a child properly. At the same time, single-mother families and two-father families will gradually appear in public life, with far more social acceptance than today. There’s also an interesting possibility: IVF (in vitro fertilization) and genetic screening will be more advanced, and some families may screen embryos for health risks before conception to reduce the chance of inherited diseases. This will remain ethically controversial, but the technology will become increasingly accessible.

Question 7: What will the relationship with your parents look like when you grow up?

This question may matter more than you think. By 2046, you’ll be roughly 23 to 25 years old. Your parents will be around 50 to 55. China’s one-child policy left a structural problem: one young person may need to support two parents and four grandparents at the same time. This is sometimes called the “4-2-1 family.” That pressure will peak around 2046, when large numbers of people born in the 1960s will be entering old age and needing more medical care and daily support. The reality you’ll face: nursing homes may not be affordable; living together may create constant friction; remote care — installing sensors and AI monitoring systems for your parents — is an option, but leaves an emotional gap. On the other hand, the way you communicate with your parents will be very different. Your parents are the generation that grew up with WeChat and short videos; they’ll be far more comfortable with new technology than your grandparents ever were. You might spend family time together in the metaverse, or follow the same TV series and have more in common. The relationship will be more equal — but also more complicated.

Question 8: Will being single in 2046 count as “failure”?

Today, many young Chinese people still feel the shame and pressure of “why aren’t you married yet?” — especially at Spring Festival family gatherings. By 2046, that shame will shrink significantly, though it won’t vanish completely. In cities, being single will be seen by more and more people as a perfectly normal life choice — like choosing to freelance or choosing not to own a car. The “singles economy” will keep growing: living alone, traveling alone, and eating alone will all come with better products and services designed for one. But in more conservative families or small towns, “why aren’t you married” will probably just be rephrased as “are you seriously looking?” Human beings’ need for social approval won’t disappear in 20 years. The real change will come when there are more visible role models of successful single life — not the image of someone who “couldn’t find anyone,” but real people who chose to be single and are living full, rich lives. When those people are around you, the pressure will finally start to lift.

Question 9: Will young people in 2046 still believe in love?

This is a great question, and a hard one. Love is something humans have been searching for and celebrating for thousands of years — 20 years isn’t enough to change that basic human need. But the shape of love and what people expect from it will change. Many Chinese young people today already have fewer romantic fantasies about marriage than the generation before them — not because they’re more cold-hearted, but because they’ve seen too much online about what real marriages actually look like. By 2046, that “de-romanticization” will go even further. But maybe, precisely because people no longer have unrealistic fantasies about love, the genuine deep connections that do form will be treasured far more carefully. You’ll know with much more clarity: the person beside you is someone you chose actively — not out of habit, not as a compromise, not because society expected it. That choice might be purer than any version of love in any previous era.

By 2046, there will be no standard answer in China telling you how to arrange your emotional life and your family. That’s a good thing. You will have more choices than any generation before you — but also the responsibility that comes with them: to figure out what you truly want. Not what your parents want. Not what your friends consider normal. But what you yourself, in the quiet of a late night, really want.

A Question for You

If you — in 2046 — could decide your family life completely free from any social pressure, what kind of life would you most want to choose?